[SMM Meridian Review] Nonferrous Metals fall in Shanghai and Nickel low Open High Walk Macro data to warm up the Black Collective upward

"[happy New year] SMM CEO Fan Xin delivers New year 2020 message

SMM12, March 31: this morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released manufacturing PMI data for December of 50.2%, the second consecutive month of expansion. Manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, the same as last month, for the second month in a row above the rise and fall line, the manufacturing industry continued to expand last month, the economy rose steadily. This month, the main feature of manufacturing PMI continued to accelerate production, demand continued to expand. Bureau of Statistics interpretation: manufacturing PMI expanded for the second month in a row in December, but the non-ferrous market was flat in the morning, with only Shanghai nickel rebounding 0.83 per cent. The recent rise in nickel prices has slowed but remains in a rebound pattern. Indonesia's export ban will be formally implemented tomorrow, nickel mine imports will fall sharply in the future, the market supply will focus on Indonesian nickel and iron exports. The local production of stainless steel in Indonesia has also begun to put into production, the demand for nickel and iron is also increasing, the situation of stainless steel has warmed up, and prices have stabilized and rebounded, which has also boosted the rise in nickel prices. It is also reported that Grongis (Granges) has signed an agreement to buy Polish aluminum rolling producer aluminum Konin for 2.3 billion Swedish kronor ($245 million) from Boryszew Group. The acquisition is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2020, when Impexmetal and Konin Aluminium will become wholly owned subsidiaries of Grangers. Upon completion of the acquisition, Grangers will have an aluminum production capacity of 456000 tons.

The black system is on the strong side in the morning, the mineral materials rise together, the heat rolls up 1.12%. However, according to SMM, it is understood that the pressure on the supply of hot rolls may increase at a later stage, and then it may weaken. Recently, a continuous number of steel mills to join the ranks of maintenance, some electric furnace steel in the profit and loss line, take the initiative to overhaul, output is expected to maintain a decline. From the present stage to before the Spring Festival, as the construction site will be shut down one after another, the demand will be lukewarm, the supply will continue to be affected by maintenance, and the guidance on the supply and demand side will be weakened.

Crude oil fell 1.22% in the previous period. Global oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday in the last trading day of the year, but are expected to record their biggest annual increase since 2016, boosted by easing trade disputes between China and the US and OPEC+ production cuts. Brent crude fell 0.06 per cent to $66.63 a barrel in March. Us crude oil contracts fell 0.08 per cent to $61.63 a barrel in February.

Closing at noon:

As of 11:30, HKEx had added US dollar-denominated small metal contracts:

Today's stock

Aluminum: aluminum in the middle of the month to maintain the interval shock. Shanghai Wuxi market below the monthly ticket goods, spot quotation in 14500-14520 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price rose 30 yuan / ton, to the surface rising water 160-170 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot price in 14510-14530 yuan / ton. Near New year's Day, most of the market traders are in a state of rest, out of the mood is not high, supply and demand performance is weak, downstream manufacturers have basically entered a holiday state, the enthusiasm of stock preparation before the festival is not very obvious, today the East China market as a whole is relatively desolate.

Lead: Shanghai market southern lead 15240 yuan / ton (a small amount), Shanghai lead 2001 contract up 200 yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices fluctuate and fall, downstream storage enterprises wait and see carefully, and because of the end of the year, some cardholders are on holiday, market quotations are few, bulk market transactions are weak.

Guangdong market South China lead 15130 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up to 30 yuan / ton quotation; Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters to long single trading; lead price shock downward, refinery shipment intention is not good, there are few bulk quotation in the market, downstream slow down the pace of procurement, transactions have cooled compared with yesterday. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 15100-15130 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water and water 30 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Guangxi Hechi south 14980 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 120 yuan / ton. Jiang copper is 15150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net is 50 yuan / ton, Yunnan Yunsha is 14850 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 250 yuan / ton. Lead price center of gravity down, downstream on-demand procurement, but the shipper shipment mood is not good.

Zinc: the mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18135-18155 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18145-18165 yuan / ton; that of zinc was 90-100 yuan / ton in January; that of Shuangyan was 110-110 yuan / ton in January; that of zinc was 18065-18085 yuan / ton in January. Shanghai zinc 2001 contract shock downward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18050 yuan / ton. In the first trading period, there were few ordinary brand zinc quotation in the market, and then a small amount was guaranteed to the 2001 contract to rise to 130 yuan / ton. In addition, the average net price was quoted at 20-30 yuan per ton, but the market transaction was extremely light. After the holder began to take the initiative to lower the price of rising water, the 2001 contract rose 120-130 yuan / ton; Entering the second period, market transactions continued to be weak, spot rising water continued to decline, ordinary brand zinc basic with the market reported to the 2001 contract rose 90-100 yuan / ton, but the transaction is still light; zinc price shock fell back, traders market turnover is light, in the afternoon spot water there is the possibility of continuing to weaken; zinc spot prices fall again, downstream procurement on demand today, procurement sentiment has improved compared with yesterday.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18120-18170 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on the Shanghai zinc 2002 contract rose 140-160 yuan / ton, Guangdong stock market than Shanghai stock market discount from yesterday's Pingshui to 10 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. Today, some traders close the account can not ship, other holders in the morning reported in the average price discount of 10 yuan / ton, the follow-up transaction is poor, the holder actively shipped, out in the average price discount of 20 yuan / ton-30 yuan / ton, the surface quotation is basically in the February contract rose 150-160 yuan / ton, the monthly difference maintained at 50 yuan / ton, the market transaction is slightly light; Enter the second trading period, the contract quotation gradually lowered to the February contract rose 140 yuan / ton, the downstream willingness to receive goods is poor, the overall majority of wait-and-see, market trading is obviously light, as a whole as weak as yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18120-18170 yuan / ton near.

Ningbo Hualian and others closed at 18320-18360 yuan / ton, and Yun Yongchang reported 275 yuan / ton of water in February. In the first trading session, the zinc price fluctuated downwards at the beginning of the session, and the holder kept rising. In February, the price rose by 275 yuan / ton, the traders shipped less, the willingness to receive goods downstream was poor, and there were few transactions. In the second trading session, zinc prices continued to fluctuate, the spot market remained unchanged, traders still shipped less, and there were few transactions. This week, Ningbo area inventory is low, some trade volume is small or out of stock, traders ship less today, but it is expected that two batches of goods will arrive in the warehouse one after another after New year's Day, and long orders will arrive one after another next week. Downstream, tomorrow New year's Day holiday, downstream before the festival of poor willingness to receive goods, superimposed some small factories have been prepared to stop production holiday, consumer orders are also weaker than the previous period, it is expected that the rising water in Ningbo area will be further downward, today Ningbo area as a whole there are few transactions. Ningbo compared with Shanghai Shengshui about 100 yuan / ton, the price difference widened.

Nickel: December 31 SMM1 electrolytic nickel quotation 111200-115600 yuan / ton, the average price is 150 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, mainly related to the high rising water of Jinchuan nickel. Shanghai nickel fell sharply after the opening of early trading, but then quickly rebounded, the mainstream trading session 10:00 to 10:30, the main contract gradually rose from 111570 to 112010. At present, most traders still quote Shanghai Nickel 2002, because it is the last trading day at the end of the year, many enterprises have closed their accounts and no longer trade. Today, Russia Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2002 discount 2002 to 2002 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday, there are also a small number of discount 300 and flat, the inquiry is more active but the actual demand is not strong, a small number of traders have small transactions; Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2002 rose 4000 to 4500 yuan / ton, Shanghai continued the shortage situation, the spot is very few, a small number of holders raised the offer to about 4500 yuan, some of the lower transaction in 4000 yuan is also due to the maintenance of downstream customers, Jinchuan shortage situation may be improved after New year's Day. December 31 Jinchuan Company Electrolytic Nickel (Big Board) Shanghai offer 114800 yuan / ton, barreled small pieces 116000 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than yesterday.

Updating.

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